When Golden State completes their game against Phoenix over the weekend, every NBA franchise will have completed 50 matches from their 82-game schedule. With the league focusing on the trade deadline and the All-Star break that soon follows, there isn’t a lot of buzz focusing on the major award races — which is understandable as there is still a third of the season to be completed. Still, we have a big enough sample size to assess how tight the voting will be for all seven of the NBA awards and I’ll be surprised if a lot changes between now and May when the official winners are declared.
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Defensive Player of the Year
Favourite: Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves
A three-time winner of this award already, Rudy Gobert is in the box seat to join a rare club. Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo are tied for the most DPOY trophies in league history with four — and at 31 years old, Minnesota’s man in the middle still has time to become the first hooper to win this award five times. The only other player that may be able to challenge Gobert this year is Knicks wing defender OG Anunoby, with his arrival in New York coinciding with defensive dominance. Since they pulled the trigger on an Anunoby trade, the Knicks own the best defensive rating in the NBA and should they climb the standings in the East, that may help OG emerge as a contender for DPOY honours. If you ask me though, no one is catching Rudy.
Verdict — Rudy Gobert wins
Rookie of the Year
Favourite: Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
Over the first half of the season, there was a legitimate argument over who should be leading the Rookie of the Year race. Victor Wembanyama was individually impressive while the Spurs spluttered out of the gate as a team to start the 2023–24 campaign, while Chet Holmgren made his presence felt on both ends of the court impacting winning for one the best teams in the league. As a result, Chet was the favourite for this award only a few short weeks ago as OKC fought for their place atop the West, but as we approach the All-Star break it’s clear that Wemby has not only closed the gap but he’s vaulted into pole position.
Choosing a winner for this award comes down to a bit of personal preference — would you rather reward the flashy, statistically dominant rookie who is on track to play for a 17-win team, or is it wiser to acknowledge the impact another rook has on a possible 50-win team while playing more than 30 minutes a night. Holmgren deserves a ton of credit and will garner some first-placed votes without question, but the closer we get to the end of the season the more Wembanyama asserts himself as the correct ROY pick.
Verdict — Victor Wembanyama wins
Clutch Player of the Year
Favourite: Damian Lillard, Bucks
Dame is the narrow favourite for this award at the moment, but you could throw a blanket over most of the league’s stars for clutch player honours. Steph Curry, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LeBron James and Jalen Bruson are all around the mark, although when you unpack their numbers at the end of tight games an obvious player emerges as the pick of the bunch. While clutch scoring doesn’t tell the whole picture, only Anfernee Simmons averages more points in the last five minutes of close games than Steph — and Curry’s shooting splits help separate him from the field with 51.6 FG%, 49.1 3% & 97.0 FT% percentages when winning time arrives. It feels right that Steph finishes his career with at least one of these trophies and he’s my pick to claim the hardware for 2023–24.
Verdict — Steph Curry wins
Sixth Man of the Year
Favourite: Tim Hardaway Jr, Mavericks
This award race is still wide open with a strong group of candidates putting their hands up for contention. As it stands right now, Dallas guard Tim Hardaway Jr is the betting favourite — excelling without a healthy Kyrie Irving to average 16.5 PPG in the 38 games he has come off the bench so far. Usually, 6th man honours go to the best reserve scorer in the league and while THJ has been impressive, other score-first guards such as Malik Monk, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson and Norman Powell remain in the mix as well.
It’s worth highlighting that Hardaway Jr has started 10 games this season, scoring 23.0 PPG in those hitouts and making his per-game averages look much better on paper. I’d prefer to see someone like Monk or Powell win the award this season — players who haven’t started a single game and are playing a crucial role as the lead scoring punch for their second unit. There’s still a fair bit to play out for this award though and deadline-day deals or other injuries may change the outlook for some of this group. Should L.A. continue to succeed, rewarding their bench buck-getter in Norman Powell makes sense to me.
Verdict — Norman Powell wins
Coach of the Year
Favourite: Mark Daigneault, Thunder
When you look at the top of the Western Conference and see the Thunder and Timberwolves hanging around, you can understand why Mark Daigneault and Chris Finch currently have the shortest odds of winning Coach of the Year. Virtually tied with OKC and Minnesota are the L.A. Clippers, and you guessed it, their head coach Tyronn Lue owns the third shortest odds for this award. Improving a team’s win tally from one year to the next is the main ingredient for taking out this award and while I think coaches such as Tom Thibodeau, Rick Carlisle and J.B. Bickerstaff deserve a mention, the favourite for COY honours is the favourite for a reason. On pace to win 16 more games than the previous year, this trophy is Daigneault’s to lose.
Verdict — Mark Daigneault wins
Image from si.com
Most Improved Player
Favourite: Tyrese Maxey, Sixers
It’s hard to define how much a player “improves” from one year to another aside from looking at their counting stats. A big scoring jump is commonly associated with the winners of this award and this year’s favourite is no exception after he boosted his PPG average from 20.3 a night up to 25.9. Tyrese Maxey is now slated to make his first All-Star appearance in the next few weeks and with James Harden out of the picture, Maxey has well and truly taken another leap as a player. Not only is he running the offence for Philly, but he’ll now have to shoulder the scoring load to keep his team afloat while Joel Embiid is out.
The 76ers guard isn’t the only one who has taken his game to new heights this season, with Alperen Sengun levelling up as an offensive cornerstone for the Rockets and Coby White starting to reward patient Chicago fans by flirting with a 20 PPG average. The natural progression from youngsters like Scottie Barnes, Jalen Johnson and Jonathan Kuminga is worth acknowledging and we do still have 30+ games remaining — and yet, Maxey already has one hand on this trophy and I can’t see the other contenders overtaking him when it comes time to cast the MIP votes.
Verdict — Tyrese Maxey wins
Most Valuable Player
Favourite: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
It comes as no surprise to learn that Nikola Jokic is the current frontrunner for this year’s award now that Joel Embiid is out of the picture. Denver’s megastar is poised to win his 3rd MVP trophy in four seasons at this rate, producing another statistically dominant season by averaging a 26/12/9 line every time he steps onto the court. The reigning champs aren’t too focused on their regular season record and we know Jokic isn’t consumed by individual accolades — which could leave the door slightly ajar for another player to make a push for MVP honours. Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looms as the biggest threat to Jokic’s hardware and if OKC maintains their winning ways and captures the №1 seed out West, it may be enough to swing some voters his way.
Gilgeous-Alexander is benefitting from the players around him getting better, but he has vaulted himself into the conversation as one of the best, most reliable scorers on the planet. Kawhi Leonard has also been dominant over the last five weeks and Donovan Mitchell has the Cavaliers clicking on all cylinders, which may lead to them becoming a finalist for the award. SGA is the only other player who stands a real chance of pinching the trophy from Jokic though and the win-loss record at season’s end for Denver and Oklahoma City will go a long way to determining who gets the nod. We can see the next generation of superstars starting to take the league by storm — but before they do, I think the most recent Finals MVP will claim the league’s highest individual honour one more time.
Verdict — Nikola Jokic wins